DecayGuard — We call re-entries. Dated. Graded. Public.

Computed nightly

Every number here is read from the public ledger, not typed by hand.

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Evidence-mature silence precision

— matured · — closed, pending maturity · — confirmed · — open of — issued · definition · correction 2026-10-07

— days

Median lead time

days between a dated call and the confirmed re-entry

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Window coverage

target —

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Objects on watch today

in terminal decay, ranked by P50 days remaining

source_day — · recomputed in your browser on the track record and checked against the published metrics. Verify the anchor chain →

The ledger

The last eight entries. Click any row.

Rendered live from the published track-record.json — the same artifact the product reads. Each row opens the full story of that prediction: the claim, what its status means, the ground truth and the receipt.

Issued	Object	Claimed window	Outcome	Lead	Entry hash
Loading ledger…

Chain head loading… Every prediction we've ever issued →

Method

Three steps. No step is secret.

We publish the method and the full graded record. We keep the tuning. The description is open; the thresholds are the product.

A derelict satellite above Earth's night limb, its tracking pings fading from dense and bright to nothing

01 · DETECT

Silence.

Objects stop being tracked before they stop existing. We detect the silence pattern — the tell that an object has entered terminal decay — and issue a dated prediction the same day.

A decaying satellite descending along an arc that fans into three nested amber prediction bands

02 · PREDICT

Windows.

P10 / P50 / P90 day windows, conformal-calibrated, graded against Space-Track ground truth. When we're wrong, the miss stays in the ledger forever.

Stylised ledger rows with green outcome ticks, a luminous hash-chain thread running through every entry

03 · PROVE

Receipts.

Every prediction is hash-chained the day it's issued. We can't edit history — and neither can you. A ten-line script verifies the whole chain.

Soft solar glow at the frame edge thickening Earth's upper atmosphere while a row of satellites drifts lower together

Storm stress test

What does a solar storm do to your risk?

Rising F10.7 compresses every re-entry clock at once. The stress test re-ranks the watchlist with per-object drag response and shows which objects flip from weeks-remaining to days-remaining — before the storm does.

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objects re-ranked

P10 → P90

per-object windows

nightly

precomputed, not live

Run the scenario →

Pricing

One tier, priced as data — not code.

The track record is public and always will be. You're paying for what's next, not for proof of what happened.

Get access

Same account as DebrisGuard · one API key works on both products · cancel any time.

Questions

Straight answers, on the record.

What gets graded, and by whom?

Every prediction is a dated claim with an explicit window. It is graded against Space-Track Historical decay messages — the after-the-fact record of what actually re-entered — never against anyone's forecasts. The grading rules are published in full on the methods page.

What happens to misses?

They stay in the ledger forever. Entries are hash-chained the day they're issued, so a miss can't be quietly removed or reworded — the chain head would change and anyone holding yesterday's receipts file would see it.

Why are there no burn or manoeuvre predictions?

We run a burn-cadence stream internally, but we don't publish claims until a stream sustains better than 60% precision over 30 days of public-grade evaluation. It hasn't cleared that bar yet, so it isn't for sale. We think that policy is the product.

Where does the data come from?

Public catalog data — Space-Track general-perturbations histories and decay messages. Artifacts are recomputed and validated nightly; a failing artifact is never published and yesterday's stays live.

How does this relate to DebrisGuard?

DebrisGuard is our space-domain-awareness product: the map, conjunctions, live anomaly alerts. DecayGuard is the ledger: dated re-entry calls, graded in public. Same lab, same pipeline, same account — two lenses.